The Canadian Press has written an article in which it claims that Jim Judd, director of CSIS, has told the government that a terrorist attack on Canadian soil is “now probable.” This revelation is based on an annual report to the minister of PSEPC, obtained under a CP Access to Information request.
Apparently, Judd has declared that CSIS’ “highest priority involved trying to prevent assaults occurring in, or originating from, Canada.”
Also from the report, according to the CP article:
“The threat of further attacks by Sunni Islamic extremists and
other like-minded groups continues, bringing with it elevated demands on the
service's resources."
[…]
"During the past year,
Canada and Canadian interests abroad continued to be under threat from Al Qaeda
and its affiliated groups," Judd says.
"While the threat remains
concentrated overseas, an attack on Canadian soil is now
probable."
The Acting National Security Advisor to PM Harper, Stephen Rigby, says that the government is aware of the CSIS report, and that it is maintaining “a very high degree of vigilance” with respect to Al Qaeda, despite the lack of intelligence about a specific plot.
CBC notes that the annual report (from Judd to then PSEPC Minister McLellan) was top secret at the time of writing, and that the copy obtained by CP was declassified.
To provide some background and context to this story, it’s important to look back at previous CSIS reports. The 2003 Public Report is a good place to start.
Written in 2004, the 2003 Public Report (which is, by definition, publicly available) contains many of the exact same statements that are receiving so much attention in the Canadian media today in relation to the ‘top secret’ declassified report.
For example (from the 2003 Public Report):
“The many tensions across the world, stemming mainly from
terrorist activities, continue to have potentially serious consequences for
Western nations and put their security resources, including those of CSIS, under
great pressure..”
[…]
“Safeguarding against the
possibility of a terrorist attack occurring in, or originating from, Canada is
the highest national security priority.”
“Current signs point to
increased terrorist threats, particularly from Sunni Islamic extremists either
directly aligned with or supporting of the ideology espoused by Al Qaeda. Osama
Bin Laden has vowed to use Al Qaeda to strike the United States and its allies,
including Canada.”
And so on.
So, despite the front page coverage and news headlines that this new document is receiving, from what we can tell, there is very little that differentiates it from previous CSIS reports on the threat posed by terrorism to Canada and Canadians. Of course, we can’t see the ‘new’ report in its entirety, and it is possible that it contains some significant information. But from what we have seen, this report seems to re-assert an assessment that has been valid for a few years now. The only real departure from previous reports appears to be the assertion that terrorist attacks in Canada are ‘now probable.’ But even this assessment is difficult to contextualize without some additional quantitative and qualitative information about what ‘probable’ means. Previous reports have described the terrorist threat to Canada thusly:
“The most significant threat to Canada is that posed by
terrorism. As Canada continues to be an active player in the international
struggle against terrorism, it will face increasing threats from transnational
terrorist organizations.” – CSIS Public Report 2003
“The world is a
dangerous place, even if the relative safety of life in Canada sometimes
obscures just how dangerous it is. As recent events have highlighted, there is a
wide range of threats facing Canada from pandemics to terrorism. […] In a taped
message released on November 12, 2002, Osama bin Laden identified Canada as a
target for attack.” – Securing an Open Society (Canada’s National Security
Policy) 2004
To these more substantive quotes, we can add the numerous statements by Canadian Ministers and officials who have repeated the “very real but non-specific” threat assessment whenever the subject of terrorism has come up over the last five years.
When considering today’s reports then, it is important to note that, in the context of recent Canadian discourses on terrorism, the latest assessments are much more ‘normal’ than they are ‘new.’
Also on the subject of CSIS, a press release from May 1 announced that CSIS has changed its organizational structure. The big change appears to be the implementation of semi-autonomous regional headquarters.
From the release:
“CSIS has undertaken a realignment in order to:
- increase operational capability;
- consolidate and enhance analysis and production functions; and
- enhance corporate support.
The Service’s new structure is geographically-based, with each branch being responsible for investigating all threats emanating from their respective geographic areas. It will provide the
flexibility required to accommodate current and anticipated operational
needs.”
And finally, given that this week was Emergency Preparedness Week in Canada, the government announced a new Emergency Management Act, which was tabled for first reading. The Act will replace the outdated (1985) Emergency Preparedness Act, and it also involves amendments to the Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Act (regarding the responsibilities of ministers), the Access to Information Act, and the forthcoming Federal Accountability Act.
All the best,
- Mike L
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