Politics and the DPRK

As North Korea stands poised and ready to test the Taepodong-2 long range ballistic missile western media have generally portrayed such action as proof the DPRK is intent on striking the continental United States or overseas territories in the future. For many, the question is not if North Korea will develop the capacity to field a menacing arsenal of nuclear warheads and sophisticated delivery systems but, when. Framing the potential launch of the Taepodong-2 as pure hostility towards the west over looks a number of important considerations.
First, little that is known about North Korean military doctrine, specifically as it relates to weapons of mass destruction indicates a finely tuned understanding of the concept of deterrence. Analysis conducted by the Federation of American Scientists (http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/dprk/doctrine/index.html), maintains:

“Although North Korea's strategies and tactics can be (sometimes purposely)
baffling; the country is being run by extremely intelligent and very rational
people with a strongly developed sense of self-preservation.”

Rather than being a rogue state with an unyielding desire to strike the United States with a single blow at the earliest opportunity, North Korean leaders are cognizant of the political leverage a pariah state can gain by attempting to deploy a long range ballistic missile system.

Additionally, the DPRK weapons system program is driven by domestic and regional considerations. Daniel A. Pinkston of the Center for Nonproliferation Studies (http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/other/nk_msl_launch.pdf) cites the dual use nature of ballistic missiles and points to the ability of such systems to launch a satellite into earth’s orbit. North Korea is one of the few countries in the region without an active space program. Kim Jong Il may view the launch as way to rally nationalistic support in the face of continual isolation while at the same, satisfying the hardliners in his regime who desire a long range weapon in the DPRK arsenal. A launch could also serve as advertising for states looking for technical support for their own weapons systems program. The DPRK has ties with Iran and Pakistan; two states with a desire to advance their own special weapons program. Understandably, hard currency for North Korean military expertise is attractive for a country with few international trade links.

Written by Alec Lalonde