Thursday, August 10, 2006

Notes on the UK Terror Plot

The British HS John Reid showed still waters to the people of the UK as he described the ‘unprescedented’ terror plot, but his far stronger discourse only the day before, and the political currents in parliament churning underneath belie both the calm demeanor and the instruction being echoed in US UK and Canada alike: remain vigilant, but proceed as normal.

The revelation of an alleged plot to detonate ‘up to 10 flights’ (according to sources) with liquid explosives has sparked another round of feverish coverage, intensified security measures, discourses both heightened and carefully toned down from officials, and a sudden, though likely tenuous political unity. What appears to have changed that this ‘foiled’ plot appears to have incorporated features of a completed attack: a Red or Critical (immanent attack) threat level was issued for the US as well as the UK. (Although the US did restrict it to international flights) and the US also raised the threat level in what one BBC reported described as ‘slightly’ to orange.

Heathrow, Manhattan and Washington airports (at least) now have a greatly increased presence of armed officers, and the US has pledged a greater number of air martials to the UK-US route. Heathrow has taken the reportedly unprecedented step of banning liquids and obliging passengers to take their carry-on items in a clear plastic bag. Shoes are once again to be scanned. Although in his official statement HS Reid and the Transport Minister appeared adamant that passengers need only be patient and trust that the new measures would keep them safe, the BAA issued a warning to avoid Heathrow if possible, and British Airways cancelled all short-haul flights leaving Heathrow today.

Economic Fallout:

The markets are known for their dramatic swings, but by early afternoon, UK time, the Guardian reported a 4.5% loss for British Airways, and ripple effects are already reported for the Pound Sterling and the US dollar, the UK FTSE and reaching as far as the Bond Market as investors scramble to abandon their risky holdings. Like any market trend, it may signify a brief scare or a deeper disquiet, but it certainly reflects the speed at which conditions can change in the wake of even a ‘successful’ arrest. Perhaps the most telling market trend is an increased resilience in the face of terror ‘events’ over the past 5-7 years.

Conflicting Signals and Parallel Discourses

As always, authorities are faced with the dilemma of how to impress the public with the seriousness of the situation as they perceive it without creating panic. The statement by Reid was some of the earliest information I consumed this morning, and I was left, for the time being, with a strong impression that despite his terming the potential losses ‘unprecedented’, Reid had otherwise taken a very measured approach to the event. However, parallel articles published today by the Guardian detail a far more strident discourse presented to the Demos think tank yesterday that seem to parallel (although Reid’s remarks were far stronger) the heightened rhetoric that surfaced in Canada in advance of the terror arrest operation in Toronto.

Reid went as far as explicitly charge critics of anti-terror legislation with hampering police effectiveness and endangering the safety of Britons. He said that the UK faced the greatest threat to its security since the cold war, citing increased global mobility as a significant hole in UK measures. This type of statement is an allusion to the globalization-as-vulnerability and globalization-as-threat/NGO of terror discourse. The intended conclusion being that the threat is vast and ‘global’ and demands tighter, tougher response with a heavy bias on security measures over human rights. He noted elsewhere in the speech that the police are 100% dedicated, but not currently 100% successful in preventing terror. By a few accounts it appeared to have been calculated to lay the ground for yet more anti-terror legislation in the fall, and a further appeal against last week’s appeal court ruling in favor of the 6 Control Order detainees.

It sorts ill with today’s assurances of the travel secretary that travelers would be safe (those that did not heed BAA requests to fly elsewhere or whose flights had not been cancelled by British Airways) due to the emergency measures, and Chertoff’s statements that parallel alerts intensified measures in the US are only a matter of ‘prudence’. Naturally the July 21st London bombings must inspire all caution, but the wide range of measures and open ended statements do not denote a ‘routine’ securing of loose ends.

More to come:

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